[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH A MICROWAVE PASS NEAR
02Z SUGGESTS THAT IT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY...IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE 310/11.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL GUIDANCE.  WITH 
SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM AND WATER TEMPERATURES 
DECREASING...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 17.4N 124.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.7N 125.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.2N 128.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster