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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2002
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH A MICROWAVE PASS NEAR
02Z SUGGESTS THAT IT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WEST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY...IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 310/11.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL GUIDANCE. WITH
SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM AND WATER TEMPERATURES
DECREASING...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.4N 124.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.7N 125.8W 25 KTS
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.2N 128.3W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 09/0600Z 21.5N 134.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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