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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310/11 KT.  MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE 
AVN MODEL TURNS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS 
AND THE MOTION IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE AVN MODEL AND
IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT...30 KT...AND 35 KT
FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
AND IS APPROACHING THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM.  THEREFORE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...ANY 
INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT COULD 
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  BY 
24 HOURS...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER 
WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT 
LOW IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 16.6N 123.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.6N 124.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N 127.1W    25 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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