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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF T.D.  SEVEN-E
EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND FARTHER NORTH THAN
EARLIER POSITIONS...CONFIRMING EARLIER SUSPICIONS.  RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MORE NORTHWARD CENTER
POSITION.  AFTER REVISING THE WORKING TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STAY ON
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST.  BEYOND
36 HOURS THE MODELS TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS FOR 
THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED UPPER- 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS 
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  HOWEVER...THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS THAT THE SHEAR IS STILL 
SIGNIFICANT.  MOREOVER THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING THE 26C SEA 
SURFACE ISOTHERM.  THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED 
FOR 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION AFTER 48 HOURS 
AS THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 16.0N 122.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 127.8W    25 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N 130.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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