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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A HINT OF A BAND DEVELOPING 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS 
AT 0137Z INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 
1.5...2.0...AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  ON THIS BASIS ADVISORIES ARE 
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT 
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TRACKS.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN MODEL.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING IS PRODUCING WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...SO
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  CURIOUSLY...THE SHIPS
MODEL WANTS TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION TO 50 KT IN THE FACE OF NEARLY 30
KT OF SHEAR.  AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DECREASING...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER TOO
LONG.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 13.3N 120.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 13.8N 122.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 125.6W    30 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.1N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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