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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUL 29 2002
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER
THE PAST 6 HR...WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS NOW PRESENT WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  ELIDA IS NOW OVER 19C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/12.  ELIDA IS MOVING INTO A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 32N129W.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL
DISSIPATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 23.0N 126.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 24.6N 127.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     30/0600Z 26.2N 127.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     30/1800Z 27.8N 128.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     31/0600Z 29.4N 128.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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