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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002
 
SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER OF ELIDA
SUGGESTING SOME RE-STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED. THIS IS INDICATED BY
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ELIDA IS CONTINUING
TO MOVE OVER 23C WATER...THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS LIKELY NOT ALLOWING THE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE
SURFACE.  AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS SYMMETRICAL AND UNRESTRICTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  ELIDA HAS MADE A SLIGHT
WOBBLE TO THE LEFT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CYCLONE HAS REMAINED
ON TRACK.  ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT CLIPER...CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TURN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD BY 48
HOURS.  THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC...AND THE DIGGING UPPER-LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND STEER ELIDA MORE NORTHWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT.  THIS IS
ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST AVN AND NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER...THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ELIDA IS EXPECTED BE MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS BY 24 
HOURS AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...OR EVEN DISSIPATE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 19.4N 123.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.4N 124.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.1N 126.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 127.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     31/0600Z 28.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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