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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002
 
ALTHOUGH ELIDA HAS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE IS 
QUICKLY RUNNING OUT OF HIGH OCTANE FUEL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL 
WATERS.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING 
SEPARATED FROM THE REMAINING FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK 
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 55 AND 
75 KNOTS. DUE TO THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS.  
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND ONCE POWERFUL ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE 
JUST A WEAK LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE 
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH... 
STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH. IF ELIDA BECOMES A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS 
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD INSTEAD MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY 
TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 17.5N 120.8W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 124.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 127.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     30/1200Z 26.0N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 
 
 
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