[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002
 
THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
IN TERMS OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE PATTERN HAS BECOME 
LESS SYMMETRIC.  THIS ASYMMETRY...ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY... 
SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  ALL 
AGENCIES ARE CLASSIFYING ELIDA AT 4.0/5.0.  BASED ON THESE 
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.

WITH THE CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO 290/11...BUT IN TRUTH MAY 
BE EVEN A LITTLE LEFTWARD OF THAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN 
UPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTHWARD.  ALL THE GUIDANCE 
RESPONDS BY TURNING ELIDA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER 
WITH THIS UPPER LOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A SLOWER TRACK THAN THE 
REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IN FACT...THE UKMET TURNS ELIDA BACK TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET HAS BEEN THE BEST 
PERFORMER WITH THIS CYCLONE SO FAR...SO THIS SCENARIO DESERVES 
CONSIDERATION.  GIVEN THIS...AS WELL AS THE CURRENT SHEARED 
STRUCTURE OF ELIDA...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE 
SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF 
THE UKMET GUIDANCE.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ELIDA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER...
WITH THE CENTER REACHING SUB-20C SSTS IN ABOUT 60 H.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING.  IF THE UKMET TRACK IS 
CORRECT...THEN ELIDA WOULD LIKELY HANG ON LONGER THAN INDICATED 
HERE.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 17.0N 119.7W    70 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.7N 121.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 18.9N 123.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 124.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     30/0600Z 25.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN


Problems?