HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INTERMITTENT SMALL EYE AND THE POSSIBILITY 
OF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST 
WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KNOTS WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY 
DECREASING. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 100 KNOTS AT THIS 
TIME. ALTHOUGH ELIDA MAY GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE 
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
APPROACHING UNFAVORABLE COOL WATERS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY 
ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT THE GENERAL FUTURE TREND OF THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE SHOULD BE FOR WEAKENING.

IT APPEARS THAT ELIDA HAS BEGUN THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE. 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/11.  ELIDA IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY 
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.  THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE 
NORTH OF ELIDA WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE NORTHWARD TURN. THIS IS 
CONSISTENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 15.8N 116.5W   100 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W    95 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 120.0W    85 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 122.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N 128.0W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN