[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 105 KT.  RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHAT WAS THE OUTER EYEWALL IS TRYING TO
TIGHTEN UP A BIT.  THE UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO REMAINS
IMPRESSIVE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 6Z WERE
102 KT...WHILE RECENT OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE COME UP AND ARE IN
THE 105-110 KT RANGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  THE SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT DURING 
THE PAST 12 HOURS WAS NOT ANTICIPATED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS MID-LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF ELIDA THAT MAY SLIGHTLY DELAY THE ANTICIPATED TURN TO 
THE NORTHWEST...AND THE MOST RECENT AVN RUN HAS ALSO SHIFTED 
WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...WHICH IS NEAR 
THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT 
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE EYEWALL CYCLE WILL COUNTERACT GRADUALLY 
COOLING SSTS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... 
THE WATER WINS.  SHOULD ELIDA STAY FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED... 
HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE DELAYED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 15.3N 115.6W   105 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 117.4W   105 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 119.6W    95 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W    85 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 124.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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