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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002

A TRMM OVERPASS AT 25/1748Z SHOWED THAT ELIDA HAD CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS.  CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS
THAT IS STILL THE CASE...AND THE INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED TO THE
POINT WHERE THE EYE HAS NOW DISAPPEARED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM AFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED
ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 105 KT.
 
ELIDA HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HR
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN EITHER THE TRACK GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PAST SEVERAL PACKAGES.  ELIDA SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR 36-48 
HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW ELIDA TO TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE THAT
SHOULD DEVELOP THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OREGON AS FORECAST
BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
FORECAST SCENARIO WILL OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL 
MOTION...AND IT IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE
MODELS.
 
ELIDA HAS FAIR OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.  AS THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...IF ELIDA
COMPLETES THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE REACHING THE COOLER
WATER...IT COULD STAY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR EVEN
SOMEWHAT RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 15.2N 114.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.6N 116.3W    95 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 16.4N 118.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.1N 120.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 122.4W    65 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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