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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002
 
WAS ELIDA A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...WHILE I DOUBT WE WILL STILL BE
DEBATING THIS IN TEN YEARS...IT IS A GOOD QUESTION FOR TONIGHT.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS TOPPED OUT AT T6.5...OR 127 KT.
HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS FROM GOES8 REACHED 6.9 OVER A
THREE-HOUR PERIOD FROM 0115 TO 0415Z...AND A CONCURRENT GOES10 RAW
ODT WAS A COUPLE TENTHS HIGHER.  SO THE INTENSITY OF ELIDA AT THE
SYNOPTIC TIME COULD WELL HAVE BEEN 140 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE
EYE TEMPERATURE HAS COOLED A BIT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE
DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN...SO THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 135 KT...WHICH IS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

A TROCHOIDAL MOTION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT...BUT THE OVERALL TRACK HAS
BEEN 290/15.  THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR AND KEEP ELIDA ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  AFTER THAT...MID AND UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT ELIDA COULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.

THE INTENSITY OF ELIDA HAS PEAKED FOR THE MOMENT.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL UNDER THE HURRICANE.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT YET INDICATE ANY OUTER EYEWALL
FORMATION...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS PROCESS WILL HAVE TIME TO
PRODUCE A SECOND PEAK BEFORE THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATER
PREDOMINATE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE WEAKENING RATE
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 14.4N 110.2W   135 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.1N 112.3W   130 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.7N 114.8W   120 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W   115 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 124.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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