HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002

ELIDA CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS
EVENING...WITH A PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES EXTENDING ALMOST ALL THE
WAY AROUND THE CDO.  IR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TOPS AROUND THE EYE
CONTINUE TO COOL.  THE EXACT INTENSITY IS A LITTLE SPECULATIVE. 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB ARE 127 KT WHILE TAFB AND AFWA
INDICATE 115 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 130 KT.
ON ONE HAND...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE LEADING THE ACTUAL
INTENSITY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS THAT
HELD TAFB'S ESTIMATE TO 115 KT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SATELLITE
VIEWING ANGLE IS SUCH THAT THE GOES-8 AND GOES-10 IMAGERY MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO SEE THE BOTTOM OF THE PINHOLE EYE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY WHEN THE DVORAK IR EYE PATTERN IS
USED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 130 KT BASED ON THE
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...THE CONTINUED COOLING OF THE EYEWALL
TOPS...AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
ELIDA HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A WOBBLING 290/14.  THE HURRICANE IS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR 36-48 HR AND KEEP ELIDA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.
AFTER 48 HR...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT ELIDA COULD
TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...
WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN TRACKING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THE AVN...LBAR...AND THE BAM MODELS TRACKING
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.
 
ELIDA SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR EITHER FROM A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR MOVING OUT OF THE 28C-29C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IT IS CURRENTLY OVER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST
A FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SO WEAKENING AFTER PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY
AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO COOLER WATER.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 14.0N 108.7W   130 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 110.7W   140 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.2N 113.2W   140 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.9N 115.6W   135 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W   125 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W   100 KTS
 
 
NNNN