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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002
 
FROM 30 KT TO 95 KT IN 18 HOURS...AND UP FROM 55 KT IN JUST 6 
HOURS...NOW THAT IS RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED A CLASSICAL PINHOLE EYE ON INFRARED 
IMAGERY...AND LOOKS BETTER WITH EVERY NEW IMAGE.  AT 0630Z KGWC GAVE 
ELIDA A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T5.0...OR 90 KT. THROWING OUT THE 
DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...A MORE RECENT ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T6.0...OR 
115 KT.  SINCE WITH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS THE SATELLITE 
SIGNATURE CAN LEAD THE WINDS...I HAVE...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY... 
RAISED THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT.  I CERTAINLY WOULD LOVE TO 
HAVE HAD AN AIRPLANE OUT THERE TO VERIFY THESE NUMBERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ELIDA IS SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 
TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK FORECAST SIMPLY 
UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
IF CLIMATOLOGY HOLDS...THE RAPID STRENGTHENING PERIOD SHOULD SOON 
END.  WHILE OSCILLATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 
COMMON...ELIDA HAS AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.    
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 12.4N 104.4W    95 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.6N 106.7W   115 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 12.8N 109.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 13.0N 111.8W   120 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N 119.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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