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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS 
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SIX-E IS NOW TROPICAL STORM 
ELIDA. IT HAS NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST 
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0 FROM ALL 
AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS.  
SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WITH THE INTENSIFICATION 
RATE...ELIDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY. 

ELIDA APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS BUT THIS SPEED 
MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO ORGANIZATION AND NOT TO REAL MOTION.  A HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF ELIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL 
MODELS TO PERSIST AND EXPAND. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A 
CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD 
SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF TRACK 
GUIDANCE WHICH IS REALLY CLUSTERED.  THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ELIDA 
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 12.3N 101.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.5N 103.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 106.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.5N 108.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N 111.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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