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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
 
THE COULD PATTERN CONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS IS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AS IT APPROACHES COOLER WATER AND STABLE AIR. 
BECAUSE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST WINDS TO NEAR 85 KNOTS...THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
 
DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 ABOUT 10 KNOTS...
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
RIDGE.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS 
ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. THE 
CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 
THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 17.8N 115.2W    85 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.2N 119.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N 122.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 126.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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