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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002
 
AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT IN RECENT IMAGERY...AND THE IR DATA
ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN
THE ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 90 KT.  SINCE DOUGLAS IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GIVEN THE LOW SST WHICH THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE
SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...275/7.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DOUGLAS.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS ...
FORECASTS A BUILDING OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT NOT AS FAST AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS
RUN.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 17.4N 114.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 17.9N 115.9W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.6N 118.2W    80 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.4N 120.8W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 20.5N 128.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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