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HURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002

DOUGLAS HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A HURRICANE 
BASED ON CONSENSUS 65 KT...T4.0...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
IMPRESSIVE AND REMAINS UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  DOUGLAS REMAINS ON TRACK AND 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... 
ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE NHC FORECAST 
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN 
DUE WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE 
RAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE 
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE 
BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN 
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE 
GFDL...AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS FOR TRACK AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS 
THE AVN AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS FOR THE SPEED.
 
DOUGLAS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS 
USUALLY LASTS ABOUT 36 TO 42 HOURS. AS SUCH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
CALLS FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS 
WITH A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER THAT THROUGH 24 HOURS... 
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SMALL 10 TO 15 NM DIAMETER EYE SEEN 
IN THE LOW-...MID-...AND UPPER-LEVELS ON A 21/1951Z TRMM OVERPASS. 
BY 36 HOURS...DOUGLAS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND 
START TO WEAKEN. BETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE 
PASSING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IF 
DOUGLAS SLOWS OR TURNS MORE WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS INDICATING...THEN THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A MAJOR 
HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE 
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS DOUGLAS TO 84 KT AND 87 KT IN 24 
AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL 
MODEL DURING LOW- OR NO-SHEAR CONDITIONS LIKE DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
WIND SPEED RADII AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON 
SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS AT 21Z AND 00Z.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 17.1N 110.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 111.9W    80 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 17.8N 113.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.1N 115.4W    85 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 117.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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