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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...40...AND 30 KNOTS 
RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB...TAFB..AND AFGWC.  A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 
LOTS OF RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS SOUTH AND WEST OF 
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AN AMSU ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS WAS ALSO 
RECEIVED.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM ON 
THE BASIS OF THE ABOVE DATA.  THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE 
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR 
CONTINUES.  THE GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH THE GFDL SHOWING DISSIPATION 
IN 12 HOURS AND SHIFOR REACHING NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FORECAST TO 
60 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.

THE WIND RADII ARE LARGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BASED ON THE 
QUIKSCAT PASS BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6.  GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEAK 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DOUGLAS AND A MOSTLY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLOWER.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 13.7N 107.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N 109.2W    55 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.1N 110.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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