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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 15 2002

CRISTINA CONSISTS...MAINLY...OF A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  
HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT 
OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN 
DOWN AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS 
OR LESS.

FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT...TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS 
LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AS IT 
DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND...IN 
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  
THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 19.6N 120.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 121.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 124.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 126.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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