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TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON JUL 15 2002
 
WHILE CRISTINA IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...IT STILL REMAINS 
AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION. A 15/1352Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED 25 
TO 30 KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE.  ALSO...A COUPLE OF 
EXPERIMENTAL AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TODAY INDICATE THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT THE 
WARM-CORE STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE PROBABLY NOT 
DECREASING THAT QUICKLY. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 30 KT 
WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 
CRISTINA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING 
CIRCULATION GETS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. MOST OF 
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS TREND AND THE AVN AND UKMET 
MODELS EVEN TAKE THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE AVN SOLUTION.
 
FOR SUCH A PRETTY NAME...CRISTINA HAS BEEN AN UGLY STORM...AT LEAST 
AS FAR AS INTENSITY FORECASTING GOES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUB-23C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RAPID 
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SEEMS TO BE A SURE BET...FINALLY!
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 19.4N 120.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 121.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N 123.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.6N 128.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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