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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002
 
THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN ELIMINATED NOW THAT A FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION HAS APPEARED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. NOW ONLY THE INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION! 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT CRISTINA HAS 
WEAKENED SINCE GOING THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE BURSTING PERIOD 6 HOURS 
AGO. I HAVE HELD THE INTENSITY UP JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 35 
TO 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE TIGHT CURL SEEN IN 
THE LOW-CLOUD BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST HAS WRAPPED INTO THE 
CENTER AND AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS HELPED TO 
ERODE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07.  OTHER THAN THE RE-ADJUSTMENT 
OF THE INITIAL POSITION A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST...CRISTINA 
REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE REGIONAL AND 
DYNAMICAL MODELS CALLS FOR A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND 
THEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND 
GETS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND THE AVN 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.
 
CRISTINA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...UNLESS 
DEEP CONVECTION REFORMS OVER THE CENTER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAPID 
WEAKENING AND PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS THE 
CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING 
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS 
CLOSE TO SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 17.3N 118.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.2N 118.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 120.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 121.8W    35 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.6N 127.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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