HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002
 
THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD TO THE STRUCTURE AND
STRENGTH OF CRISTINA.  THE DEPICTION ON IR IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 45-55 KT.
ON THE OTHER HAND...MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT
CRISTINA IS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0126Z
SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 40 KT.  I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE WINDS
HAVE COME UP FURTHER SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS.  

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  IN 
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 120W...CRISTINA IS MOVING 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE 
AVN FORECASTS THIS TROUGH TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD... 
WHICH...COUPLED WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE... 
SHOULD TURN CRISTINA BACK TO THE WNW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN THE BEST 
PERFORMING MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CRISTINA TO
STRENGTHEN.  LONGER TERM...WHILE THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WOULD ABATE AFTER THE TROUGH CUTS OFF...BY THEN CRISTINA
SHOULD BE OVER COOL ENOUGH WATER TO PRECLUDE REINTENSIFICATION.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASS.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 16.5N 117.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 118.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 119.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 120.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 122.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
NNNN