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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002
CHRISTINA SHOWS A CLASSIC...BUT SOMEWHAT RAGGED...CURVED BAND
PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS NOT WRAPPED FURTHER AROUND THE
CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR FORECAST REASONING FROM THIS MORNING...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA
AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD WEST OF CRISTINA. WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN CONTINUE AS MAJOR OUTLIERS WITH NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE OTHER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING GUIDANCE AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON CRISTINA OR AT LEAST
RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS LIGHT
AT WORST AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST. CHRISTINA
THUS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MOVES OVER COLDER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 24 HR. AFTER THAT IT SHOULD
WEAKEN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS WANT TO SPLIT THE TROUGH AFTER 36-48 HR...LEAVING CHRISTINA
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...THE STORM
MAY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.2N 117.3W 45 KTS
12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.9W 55 KTS
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.1N 118.9W 65 KTS
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.5N 119.9W 55 KTS
48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 121.4W 40 KTS
72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING
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