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TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002

WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF CHRISTINA HAS IMPROVED SINCE
YESTERDAY.  THE CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON AN OVERALL BANDING
PATTERN...AND COLD TOPS CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR NOW.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/3.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N112W...
WITH A TROUGH NOW DEVELOPING TO NEAR 14N124W AS FORECAST BY
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES NORTHWEST
OF THE TROUGH.  GUIDANCE...WHILE STILL RATHER SPREAD...IS IN
BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY.  MANY MODELS...INCLUDING
THE AVN WHICH HAS SHIFTED ITS FORECAST WESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...
CALL FOR A NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL A CLUSTER CALLING FOR A NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THAT INCLUDES THE UKMET...GFDL...NHC91...GUNS...AND GUNA.  
ADDITIONALLY...THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TAKE CRISTINA EAST OF NORTH.
SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A NORTHWARD TURN...THE TRACK FORECAST
IS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MORE WESTERLY MODELS AND IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
WHILE CRISTINA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SLOW THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER COLDER WATER
AFTER 24 HR.  THUS...THE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS CLOSING.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER
AND BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE TROUGH.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 14.8N 116.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.3N 117.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N 118.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 119.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 120.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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