HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED 
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED. 
MOST OF THE WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE STORM. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT 
BEST. CRISTINA HAS NOT RESPONDED SO FAR TO THE APPARENT LIGHT SHEAR 
AND WARM OCEAN AND WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE STRENGTHENING 
INDICATED IN PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
ONCE AGAIN...CRISTINA HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  
HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO FORCE CRISTINA 
SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF 
THE SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS AND DERIVATIVES PREDICT THAT 
CRISTINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS 
IN THE RIDGE.  ONLY CLIMATOLOGY KEEPS THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY 
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. 

BEYOND 72 HOURS..CRISTINA IS EXPECETED TO BE WEAKENING OVER COOL 
WATERS MOVING WESTWARD AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 14.0N 116.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N 117.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.0N 118.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN