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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU JUL 11 2002
THIS SYSTEM...AN EXPOSED CLOUD SWIRL WITH LIMITED SHAPELESS
CONVECTION...BARELY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. T NUMBERS ARE
1.5...1.0...AND 0.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY. THESE
CLASSIFICATIONS...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0109Z...INDICATES
THAT WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 25 KT. THE SHIP
BRITISH HARRIER...ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...
REPORTED NNE WINDS AT 15 KT WITH INTERMITTANT DRIZZLE AND MINIMAL
SEAS. IF THE CLOUD SWIRL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION IT IS A VERY
SMALL ONE INDEED.
THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOT MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS
AGO. THE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS AT ONE END
OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE CURRENT CONVECTION...
WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO
CONSOLIDATE...ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS
FOR ONLY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE
ENCOUNTERED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM MAY BE ERRATIC AS THE SYSTEM
ORGANIZES. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN...
WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0900Z 14.5N 110.2W 25 KTS
12HR VT 11/1800Z 14.9N 111.9W 25 KTS
24HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 113.7W 35 KTS
36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.4N 115.2W 45 KTS
48HR VT 13/0600Z 16.5N 116.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 55 KTS
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