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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE ALLEGED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR OR
ALREADY AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS
HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION
BASED ON THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE FIX POSITIONS BY ALL THREE
SATELLITE AGENCIES.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE LAST 3 TRMM AND SSMI
OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN TRACKING DUE WEST.
THE CENTER LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS RATHER THAN INDICATING AN ACTUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. AS SUCH...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT
AS THE SHEAR DECREASES TO LESS THAN 10 KT.
NOTE: 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP REPORTS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 13.0N 108.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/0600Z 13.2N 110.3W 35 KTS
24HR VT 11/1800Z 13.4N 112.6W 40 KTS
36HR VT 12/0600Z 13.7N 114.5W 50 KTS
48HR VT 12/1800Z 14.3N 116.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 13/1800Z 15.5N 118.0W 80 KTS
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