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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002
 
WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E CONTINUES TO GENERATE IMPRESSIVE
BURSTS OF CONVECTION...A 0532Z SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.
WHILE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD
EXPLAIN SUCH A DISPLACEMENT...IT DOES MEAN THE CYCLONE REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED.  MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED
BY A LARGE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE AVN...CALL FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER...AVN-BASED GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE BAM MODELS AND THE NHC91
CALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING
FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION.

THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND AS LONG AS CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG THERE IS A
CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW IN WHICH TO DO SO
APPEARS TO BE CLOSING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE IN
24-36 HR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY.  EVEN THE UKMET...THE WEAKEST WITH THE TROUGH
AND THE RESULTING SHEAR...SHOWS A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE
FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE CYCLONE COULD
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE
AVN/NOGAPS TROUGH FORECAST VERIFIES.


FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 12.6N 126.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 12.9N 128.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 13.4N 130.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 13.8N 132.8W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 14.0N 135.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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