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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A 
WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SO THAT THE 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE INITIAL POSITION.

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS RATHER POORLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE 
WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERY SLOW 
STRENGTHENING FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING 
VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS 
GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 12.2N 123.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.6N 125.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 13.1N 128.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.6N 130.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.0N 133.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W    35 KTS
 
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