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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUN 10 2002
BORIS REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND
ENCIRCLED THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SHALLOW CONVECTION
HAS ALSO INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
GIVEN THAT CONVECTION STILL REMAINS WITH BORIS...ALBEIT LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. BORIS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR
SO. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS
EXPECTED OTHER THAN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
PER THE 18Z AVN/GFS MODEL RUN. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL
MODEL INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION OR SOUTHWARD DRIFT FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
UNLESS SOME SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS DURING THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT...THEN BORIS WILL LIKELY
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THE GFDL...AVN/GFS...AND UKMET MODELS ALL DISSIPATE BORIS
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS BORIS THROUGH
36 HOURS AND THEN ACTUALLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE BACK UP 40 TO 45 KT IN
72 HOURS. THAT WOULD ONLY HAPPEN IF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPS NEAR
THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 17.1N 103.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 103.8W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 12/0000Z 16.9N 104.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 12/1200Z 16.8N 104.2W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/0000Z 16.7N 104.6W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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