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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUN 09 2002
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS 
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING.  EASTERLY SHEARING 
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL AND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS 
BECOME APPARENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THUS...THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL 
MAINTAINS BORIS' INTENSITY...AND EVEN STRENGTHENS THE STORM A BIT... 
IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT SHEAR IN THE 25 KT RANGE.  THIS IS 
PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER WARM WATER 
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  I AM SHOWING NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL 
LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT BORIS MAY SUCCUMB TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC 
ENVIRONMENT SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING SOMEWHAT...BUT APPEARS TO BE 
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  BORIS CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO 
MID-LEVEL RIDGES...ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONE TO THE SOUTH.  
GLOBAL MODELS...I.E. THE NCEP...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS...SHOW A WEAK 
STEERING REGIME CONTINUING FOR A FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 17.2N 104.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W    45 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 104.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 105.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W    30 KTS
  
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