HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN JUN 09 2002

RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO AND THE LATEST SATELLITE FIX FROM TAFB 
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY 
ESTIMATED...SO BORIS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
 APPARENTLY THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING OFFSET BY 
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM.  
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...THE U.K. MET OFFICE 
MODEL...AND THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL SUGGEST VERY SLOW MOTION OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN  
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PURELY DYNAMICAL 
MODELS AND THE MORE SIMPLIFIED TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS BAMS.

THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER 
THIS MORNING.  IN FACT...THE DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE RAGGED AT 
THE MOMENT WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL OR BANDING FEATURES.  BORIS 
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL 
EASTERLIES OVER BORIS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...SO NOT MUCH 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...MORE 
STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER BORIS SHOWED 
WINDS TO 50 KT...BUT NO CLOSED CIRCULATION.

RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BORIS 
HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST DURING THE PAST FEW 
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 16.8N 104.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.9N 104.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.1N 105.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.4N 105.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W    35 KTS
 
NNNN