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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT JUN 08 2002
SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED
BANDING FEATURES AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO ESTABLISHED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE 2.5 PLUS...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BORIS...THE SECOND NAMED CYCLONE OF THE
SEASON. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GIVEN THAT BORIS IS
HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF STABLE AIR AND HIGHER SHEAR...ONLY A SMALL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHILE ORGANIZING...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
BORIS SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING CURRENTS
WEAKEN. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BAM MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY. ON THIS
TRACK...BORIS AND ITS AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE
PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE COAST.
IT IS INTERESTING TO POINT OUT THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL
KEEP BORIS WITH LITTLE MOTION AND PRACTICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE
IN SITU. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY
BY SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BUT IT WAS HARD FOR ME TO IGNORE
THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 16.9N 104.5W 35 KTS
12HR VT 09/1200Z 17.3N 105.0W 40 KTS
24HR VT 10/0000Z 18.0N 106.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 12/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W 35 KTS
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