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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002
 
ALMA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED BY THE LAST PAST
OF QUIKSCAT EARLIER TODAY WERE 40 KNOTS.  ALMA IS SURROUNDED BY
DRY AIR AND IS MEANDERING OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THEREFORE...A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ALMA MAY BECOME A 
WEAK LOW SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SOME INTERMITTENT 
BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
ALMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND BECAUSE THE 
LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NO SIGNIFICANT 
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE DISSIPATION. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 17.7N 115.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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