HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 005/08.  THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET 
... AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE FORWARD 
MOTION TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS RESULTS FROM A WEAK 
STEERING PATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE WITH A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL 
LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  THE GFS SHOWS A 
NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE OTHERS ARE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
LEANING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS AND SHOWS A VERY 
SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE AT 5.5/102 KNOTS.  
HOWEVER CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME 
POORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL WIND 
SPEED IS DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS.  APPARENTLY SOME COMBINATION OF 
COLDER SSTS AND MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE INITIATED THE 
WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING 
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W    85 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.8N 114.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 19.1N 114.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N 114.2W    35 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N 114.0W    25 KTS
  
NNNN