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HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2002
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5...102 KT...AND
T5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KTS. ALMA HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AND SHOULD
NOW BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. SHIPS GUIDANCE IS MAINLY USED FOR THE
FORECASTS AND ITS MAIN REASONS FOR WEAKENING ARE COOLER SSTS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS OR GREATER OUT TO 36 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 360/7. ALMA IS BEHAVING WELL AND
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ALL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 15.6N 115.4W 90 KTS
12HR VT 30/1800Z 16.6N 115.3W 80 KTS
24HR VT 31/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W 70 KTS
36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.3N 115.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 114.7W 50 KTS
72HR VT 02/0600Z 19.7N 113.7W 35 KTS
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