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HURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2002
 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5...102 KT...AND
T5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KTS. ALMA HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AND SHOULD 
NOW BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.  SHIPS GUIDANCE IS MAINLY USED FOR THE 
FORECASTS AND ITS MAIN REASONS FOR WEAKENING ARE COOLER SSTS AND 
VERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS OR GREATER OUT TO 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 360/7.  ALMA IS BEHAVING WELL AND
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE
CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ALL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STEERING 
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND THE CYCLONE 
WILL SLOW DOWN.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 15.6N 115.4W    90 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.6N 115.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.3N 115.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 114.7W    50 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 113.7W    35 KTS
 
 
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