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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2002
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 65 AND 55
KT...RESPECTIVELY. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IR IMAGERY IS
SUGGESTING THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND THERE IS LITTLE BANDING. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTWARD
STEERING CURRENT FOR ALMA. HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO
HOW RAPIDLY THIS WILL OCCUR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SPLIT...WITH
THE GFS AND ITS BAM DERIVATIVES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH A
GENTLE RECURVATURE BEGINNING IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING AN EARLIER AND SHARPER TURN. INTERESTINGLY...THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN THE LATTER CAMP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FAVORS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE WATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS MODEST. THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE IS
NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT HAS BEEN...AND IN FACT
NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING.
STILL...THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR GROWTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS BEFORE SHEAR INCREASES AND WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 12.2N 112.7W 60 KTS
12HR VT 29/0000Z 12.7N 113.8W 65 KTS
24HR VT 29/1200Z 13.6N 114.9W 75 KTS
36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.7N 115.5W 75 KTS
48HR VT 30/1200Z 16.0N 115.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 31/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 55 KTS
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