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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002
 
THERE WAS A BIG SURPRISE THIS MORNING WHEN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES 
BECAME AVAILABLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS INDICATES THAT ALMA HAS NOT 
STRENGTHENED AND IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CURRENT 
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST WEAKEN AND THE OCEAN IS A WARM 
OCEAN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A 
MODEST INTENSIFICATION.
 
THE POSITION OF THE RELOCATED CENTER INDICATES THAT ALMAS HAS BEEN 
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...PRACTICALLY NEARLY STATIONARY.
HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL WEST 
TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT 
EASTWARD AS A NEW TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES THE AREA.  
THIS WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A 
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE NCEP GFS GLOBAL MODEL.  HOWEVER... 
SEVERAL OTHER MODELS... INCLUDING GUNS...GUNA...UK AND NOGAPS TURN 
THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH MUCH SOONER.
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 10.8N 104.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 11.0N 105.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 11.3N 106.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 11.5N 108.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 12.0N 109.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 12.5N 112.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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