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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB OF 2.5 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY. THUS...TD-1 IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC FOR 2002.
SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALMA APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TURNING
BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE AVN
MODEL. BECAUSE THE AVN HAS HANDLED THE DIP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS I AM GOING TO STAY WITH IT DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE MOTION REMAINS THE
SAME...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK WITH
A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 9.8N 105.1W 35 KTS
12HR VT 26/1800Z 9.8N 106.4W 40 KTS
24HR VT 27/0600Z 10.1N 108.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 27/1800Z 10.5N 109.5W 50 KTS
48HR VT 28/0600Z 11.0N 111.4W 55 KTS
72HR VT 29/0600Z 12.0N 115.0W 65 KTS
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