[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING 
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB 
AND SAB OF 2.5 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...TD-1 IS UPGRADED TO 
TROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH 
PACIFIC FOR 2002. 

SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALMA APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM 
TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TURNING
BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE AVN
MODEL.  BECAUSE THE AVN HAS HANDLED THE DIP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS I AM GOING TO STAY WITH IT DURING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE MOTION REMAINS THE
SAME...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK WITH
A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z  9.8N 105.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z  9.8N 106.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 10.1N 108.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 10.5N 109.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 11.0N 111.4W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 12.0N 115.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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