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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002
 
THE DEPRESSION LOOKED QUITE DISORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS
THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND ITSELF COMPETING FOR INFLOW AND ASCENT
WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND TO ITS SOUTH.  IN FACT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS
FROM TAFB AND DECREASED TO T2.0 AT 00Z.  BUT DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND...CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND IS ORGANIZING INTO A CURVED BAND.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT I PREFER TO SEE THE
APPARENT ORGANIZATION PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE UPGRADING
IT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/9...BUT AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES THE
MOTION SHOULD SLOW A BIT AND THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT SHOULD DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE
CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...THE UKMET IS AN
OUTLIER...WITH A TRACK MUCH SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND THE NCEP/GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT.  WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
ORGANIZING AT THE MOMENT...ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY HAS TAKEN
IT INTO A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  SO WHILE TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH SHOULD BE ATTAINED SOON...I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A
HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL HAS NO SUCH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE...BRINGING THE DEPRESSION TO 82 KT IN ONLY 12 HOURS.  THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE...BUT IN 48
HOURS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WEAK THROUGHOUT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z  9.8N 104.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z  9.6N 105.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z  9.7N 106.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 10.3N 108.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 11.0N 110.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 11.5N 113.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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