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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. AN 
AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES... 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND THE OUTFLOW 
REMAINS RESTRICTED.   THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO 
BE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATTER IS INFERRED FROM THE 
FORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE 200 MB RIDGE BY THE NCEP GFS(OLD AVN) 
MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GRADUAL 
STRENGTHENING.  

INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 270/05. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. 
IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS WHICH USED THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS KEEP 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK...INCLUDING THE GFS ITSELF 
WHICH SHOWS A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE LASTEST 06 UTC RUN 
SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INCREASE SOME IN FORWARD 
SPEED AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 11.4N 102.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 11.4N 103.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 11.5N 106.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 12.0N 107.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N 109.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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