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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO SHEARING.  THE
LATEST G-4 DROPSONDE DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOWS THAT THE WINDS
FROM 400 MB UP TO 250 MB ARE BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 KTS.  UNLESS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE SHEARING WILL NOT ONLY CONTINUE BUT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME.  THE SHEARING IS KEEPING THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE LATEST RECON FOUND 1004 MB PRESSURE IN THE CENTER BUT DUE TO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD NOT INVESTIGATE THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE TPC MODEL SUITE IS
NOW TIGHTLY PACKED AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM OFF TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WHEN WILL THE SYSTEM
START?  ALL THE MODELS MOVE IT OUT FROM ITS STATIONARY POSITION VERY
QUICKLY...BUT EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT A SLOWER 12 HOUR MOTION OF
ABOUT 7 TO 8 KTS MIGHT BE MORE REALISTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THIS BEGINS TO
LESSEN THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.

EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A SHEARING
PATTERN...THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE ONCE THE
DEPRESSION BEGINS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME MODERATE STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES CUBA.
ONCE OVER THE BAHAMAS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE UNDER MUCH
STRONGER SHEAR...BUT BAROCLINIC EFFECTS AND JETSTREAM DYNAMICS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN/BLAKE
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 17.0N  83.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N  82.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 21.4N  80.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 24.5N  78.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 29.1N  74.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     18/0000Z 40.0N  64.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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