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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
LILI IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST SOUTH OF MONROE. THE
CYCLONE WAS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS BASED ON 50 KT
DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES AT 5000 FT...OR 850 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO
ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.
LILI HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED OF 14
KNOTS AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM
CENTRAL GEORGIA WESTWARD TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...RADAR
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO SUGGESTS THAT LILI IS BEGINNING TO
ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN 12 HOURS OR SO WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. LILI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO
AS IT MERGES WITH A LARGER MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 32.4N 92.0W 35 KTS
12HR VT 04/1200Z 35.9N 89.8W 30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
24HR VT 05/0000Z 39.7N 84.1W 25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 05/1200Z 43.5N 75.7W 25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
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