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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
 
LILI IS ALREADY WELL INLAND AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD 
PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN 
SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LILI IS EXPECTED TO 
BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING. 

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS AND IT 
FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED. LILI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS 
OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 31.3N  92.2W    45 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     04/0600Z 33.7N  91.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/1800Z 37.5N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     05/0600Z 41.5N  81.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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