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TROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
LILI IS ALREADY WELL INLAND AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN
SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LILI IS EXPECTED TO
BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS AND IT
FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. LILI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS
OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 31.3N 92.2W 45 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT 04/0600Z 33.7N 91.9W 30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 04/1800Z 37.5N 87.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 41.5N 81.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z...ABSORBED
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