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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
A VERY INTERESTING EVENT OCCURRED WITH LILI IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IT INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY TO A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND
WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED. THERE WILL
BE MANY EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE FACT...AND PERHAPS MANY PHD
DISSERTATIONS. I AM GLAD THERE WILL BE SOME. THE TRUTH IS THAT
NOBODY WAS ABLE TO PREDICT THESE SUDDEN CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE ONGOING RESEARCH PROJECTS ON INTENSITY CHANGE.
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM...USWRP.
HOPEFULLY THESE EFFORTS WILL HELP US PREDICT SUCH EVENTS IN THE
FUTURE.
FOR WHATEVER REASON...LILI WEAKENED...AND MADE LANDFALL ON THE
RAINEY REFUGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF VERMILLION BAY AROUND 1400 UTC
WITH 85 KNOT WINDS...A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. INITIAL INTENSITY AT
THE ADVISORY TIME IS 80 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A
SMALL AREA JUST TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY INLAND. THE EYE IS ON THE COAST JUST SOUTHWEST OF NEW
IBERIA AND BOTH RADAR AND AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL IS NO
LONGER WELL DEFINED. A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. LILI
SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 29.8N 92.2W 80 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT 04/0000Z 32.1N 92.4W 35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 04/1200Z 35.0N 90.5W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0000Z 40.0N 85.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1200Z...ABSORBED
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