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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002
 
AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT LILI HAS
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY YESTERDAY
EVENING.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
COLLAPSED INTO A FEW FRAGMENTS...HOWEVER WSR-88D FROM NEW ORLEANS
AND LAKE CHARLES STILL SHOW ABOUT 50 PER CENT OF AN EYEWALL...OPEN
TO THE SOUTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME ELONGATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE
SHEAR.  RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST SOME EROSION OF THE PRECIP PATTERN OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...INDICATING A POSSIBLE
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR.  ALSO...THERE IS A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM
WATER AVAILABLE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.  ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DECLINE.  DESPITE THE WEAKENING...LILI IS STILL A FORMIDABLE
HURRICANE AND...SINCE IT IS MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD
SPEED...IT CAN STILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS AS FAR AS 150 MI INLAND.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST...ABOUT 335
DEGREE...HEADING.  A NORTHWARD TURN IS LIKELY VERY SOON BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
VERMILION BAY...WHICH COULD STILL PRODUCE STORM SURGE HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 20 FT IN THAT BASIN.

SINCE THE NORTHWARD TURN HAS BEEN DELAYED SOMEWHAT...THE SHORT-TERM
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.  THE CENTER
OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST...ABOUT
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...LATER THIS MORNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND WESTWARD IS DISCONTINUED
AT THIS TIME SINCE THE RAINBANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THAT
AREA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 28.7N  91.7W   105 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.7N  92.1W    85 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/0600Z 33.4N  91.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/1800Z 37.5N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     05/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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