[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
IT APPEARS THAT LILI HAS PEAKED BASED ON THE PLETHORA OF DROPSONDE 
AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA COLLECTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE AND 
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS 
OBSERVED WERE 196 KT AT 848 MB AND 183 KT AT 933 MB FROM 
DROPSONDES...AND 141 KT OBSERVED AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL. ALL OF 
THIS EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 125 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS 
SUPPORTED BY STEP-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA OF 125 KT OBTAINED FROM A 
NOAA RESEARCH PLANE. THE PRESSURE HAS ALSO RISEN FROM 938 MB TO 942 
MB DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS...FURTHER INDICATING THAT LILI HAS LIKELY 
PEAKED. HAVING SAID THAT...LILI IS STILL A VERY FORMIDABLE CATEGORY 
4 HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ELONGATED 
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT 
SHEAR OR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALSO...THE WIND RADII WERE INCREASED 
SLIGHTLY BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSES PROVIDED BY THE AOML/HURRICANE 
RESEARCH DIVISION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/14...BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL RESUME
SHORTLY.  RADAR AND RECON FIX DATA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACTUALLY
INDICATE A STEADY MOTION OF 325/14.  THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS
SOLID WITH 03/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING A 700 MB AND 500 MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A WRAP-AROUND RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST.  THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION SHOULD KEEP LILI MOVING IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS THURSDAY
MORNING...AFTER WHICH A TURN TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR.  THE LATEST
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...BUT REMAINS
VERY TIGHTLY PACKED TOWARD A LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VERMILLION BAY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IT STILL KEEPS THE CENTER AND CORE OF LILI WELL
TO THE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY TAKES THE CENTER JUST
WEST OF BATON ROUGE AS A HURRICANE.

WHILE THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY POSSIBLY DUE TO 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LANDFALL 
INTENSITY OF 125 KT...OR 145 MPH...IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
EVEN THOUGH THE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY EVEN WEAKEN SOME...LILI 
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 OR MAJOR HURRICANE AT 
LANDFALL. ALSO...THE EXTREMEMLY STRONG DROPSONDE WINDS PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED COULD ALSO BRIEFLY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS WIND 
GUSTS. AND FINALLY...ALTHOUGH LILI WILL START TO WEAKEN ONCE IT 
MOVES INLAND...THE STRONG WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE 
SURFACE WILL NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH 
MEANS THAT HIGH RISE STRUCTURES COULD EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 
AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY HIGHER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 27.2N  90.6W   125 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 29.2N  91.5W   125 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 31.8N  91.5W    70 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/1200Z 35.2N  89.5W    40 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     05/0000Z 39.7N  84.8W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     06/0000Z 45.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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