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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
LILI WENT THROUGH ANOTHER BURST OF INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 954 MB TO 941 MB IN ABOUT
5 HR. THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AT A SLOWER RATE SINCE
16Z...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO 938 MB AT 20Z. THE
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FOUND BY THE VARIOUS AIRCRAFT SAMPLING
LILI SO FAR ARE 136 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 120 KT.
LILI IS SHOWING SIGNS OF PEAKING...AS THE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL THAT WILL LIKELY
BRING A HALT TO THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN OR THE REASONING
OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LILI SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTS OF LOUISIANA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. AFTER LANDFALL...LILI
SHOULD RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH
GRADUAL ACCELERATION. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TOWARD A LANDFALL BETWEEN VERMILLION BAY AND SABINE
PASS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION TO THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...THE ACTUAL INTENSITY IS
CATCHING UP WITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND THE OUTFLOW IS BEING
RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THESE THINGS SUGGEST THAT LILI SHOULD PEAK IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR THEN
UNDERGO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT INTENSITY...LILI SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/2100Z 25.9N 90.0W 120 KTS
12HR VT 03/0600Z 27.5N 91.4W 125 KTS
24HR VT 03/1800Z 29.8N 92.3W 125 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 04/0600Z 32.2N 91.9W 65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 04/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1800Z 45.0N 74.0W 30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
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