[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
LILI WENT THROUGH ANOTHER BURST OF INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 954 MB TO 941 MB IN ABOUT
5 HR.  THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AT A SLOWER RATE SINCE
16Z...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO 938 MB AT 20Z.  THE 
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FOUND BY THE VARIOUS AIRCRAFT SAMPLING 
LILI SO FAR ARE 136 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 120 KT.
LILI IS SHOWING SIGNS OF PEAKING...AS THE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL THAT WILL LIKELY
BRING A HALT TO THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
MOTION.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN OR THE REASONING
OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  LILI SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL
COASTS OF LOUISIANA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.  AFTER LANDFALL...LILI 
SHOULD RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH 
GRADUAL ACCELERATION.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY 
CLUSTERED TOWARD A LANDFALL BETWEEN VERMILLION BAY AND SABINE 
PASS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER 
OF THE GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...THE ACTUAL INTENSITY IS
CATCHING UP WITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND THE OUTFLOW IS BEING
RESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THESE THINGS SUGGEST THAT LILI SHOULD PEAK IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR THEN
UNDERGO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT INTENSITY...LILI SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 25.9N  90.0W   120 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.5N  91.4W   125 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 29.8N  92.3W   125 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/0600Z 32.2N  91.9W    65 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/1800Z 36.1N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     05/1800Z 45.0N  74.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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