[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002
 
AFTER SPUTTERING A BIT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...LILI HAS SHOWN SIGNS
OF STRENGTHENING.  THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED WITH THE
EYE BECOMING WELL-DEFINED.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER 
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 125 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL 10 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 953 MB.  BASED ON THIS...
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 105 KT...MAKING 
LILI A MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LILI CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A
STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH A RANGE OF LANDFALLS FROM VERMILLION BAY TO SABINE
PASS.  WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE SUCH UNANIMOUSLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE COULD BE UNANIMOUSLY WRONG...THE SOUTHERLY AND 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE DATA
OVER MUCH OF TEXAS SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE MOMENT THE GUIDANCE IS
GOOD.  AFTER LANDFALL...LILI SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE 
CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE MORE EASTWARD AVN/GFS AND THE
MORE WESTWARD NOGAPS/UKMET.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...
AS LILI IS WELL-ORGANIZED...STILL OVER WARM WATER...AND HAS GOOD
OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT SOUTHWEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME A LITTLE COOLER CLOSER TO THE COAST...
AND DRY AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD INTRUDE INTO THE
SYSTEM AND STOP DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THAT SHOW LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE PREMISE OF STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM UP TO
THE LEVEL OF ITS CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE...WHICH IS ABOUT 120
KT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LILI COULD PEAK AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
BEFORE LANDFALL.

STOP THE PRESSES...THE LATEST FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER...
RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE REST OF THE ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS
TRANSMITTED...INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB.  SHOULD
THIS BURST OF INTENSIFICATION CONTINUE...THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REVISED UPWARD ON THE
NEXT PACKAGE.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 24.8N  88.9W   105 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.0N  90.5W   110 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.1N  92.1W   110 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.4N  92.5W    80 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/1200Z 33.5N  91.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     05/1200Z 40.5N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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